Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Generally breezy trades the next couple of days with a slight strengthening of the winds at week's close. Widely scattered showers moving in on the trade flow will have many areas experiencing brief passing showers of low accumulation. Higher rainfall totals will remain focused in windward exposures and upslope mauka. A weak trough lingering over the state, along with daytime heating, may provide just enough instability to result in late day isolated thunderstorm activity over Big Island summits.
Widely scattered progressive-moving showers trapped within breezy trades will result in quick few hundredths of rain for many island communities this morning. The highest Monday rain accumulations of greater than an half of an inch have occurred within Kauai and Oahu's higher terrain and better exposed east-facing shores. Resident North Central Pacific troughing, with periodic unseasonably high moisture streaming in on breezy trade flow, will maintain a slightly more wet pattern through the remainder of the week. Troughing lingering over the state between an upper ridge anchored northwest of the islands and an upper low heading into southern California will be the impetus to a few more days of widely scattered shower activity. More frequent showers have been welcome as the majority of the state was suffering through a moderate to severe drought (as of mid October). Periodic high mid layer moisture will continue to pass over Hawaii in this weak troughing scenario and produce early day lowering clouds and light showers. As the trough moves south and east of the state, minor cooling aloft with the interior warming through the day, may be enough to destabilize the atmosphere and produce late day into early evening isolated thunderstorms along the slopes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
The downstream pressure gradient between the surface high expanding north of the region (in relation to lower equatorial pressure), will be tight enough to maintain breezy trades through tomorrow. A new surface high moving in from the west will fill in the wake of weaker surface pressure and establish itself north northeast of the state by the weekend. This will subtly tighten the gradient even more over the islands and strengthen trades back to breezy to locally windy (within higher elevations) late Wednesday through Saturday. Sustained upper terrain winds could reach 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph atop ridge tops and through valley channels. Upper ridging will expand north of the state and steering flow around its eastern periphery will advect drier mid layer air in across the area. This will lead to a relatively drier weekend. A shallow trough will pass across the Central Pacific early next week. While this trough will not appear strong enough to push a cold front near the region, it will likely veer winds more southeast and disrupt trade flow. Greater rain and isolated thunderstorm probabilities will exist over Kauai and Oahu early next week in response to the closer proximity of the northwest trough.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue to focus low clouds and showers on windward exposures and upslope mountain terrain. Slightly elevated inversion heights will allow better organized showers to occasionally reach further interior and leeward areas. Primarily MVFR with brief IFR visibility may occur within stronger showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Bands of early morning moisture riding in on the trades has an AIRMET Sierra in for tempo windward Kauai and Oahu mountain obscuration due to lowering cloud decks and showers. These conditions will improve by late morning.
A broad, high pressure ridge to the north will dominate through the week. Trade winds will remain moderate to locally strong and are expected to gradually strengthen during the second half of the week and into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters around Big Island has been expanded in area to include typical windy waters around Maui County. The SCA has also been extended in time through Wednesday night. The SCA may stick around through the forecast period as winds strengthen further and seas build to 10 feet or greater as an advisory level north northwest swell fills in around the state.
Back to back small to moderate, long period north northwest to north swells (330-350 degrees) will fill in throughout the rest of week, keeping surf along north and west facing shores elevated. Forerunners of the next reinforcing small, long period north- northwest swell (330 degrees) have been working its way through the NDBC offshore buoys 51101 and 51001 overnight. This next swell will build locally throughout the day today and peak late tonight before subsiding Wednesday afternoon. A moderate, long period swell (330-340 degrees) will build through the day Wednesday, producing near to above advisory level surf for north and west facing shores late Wednesday into Thursday. Another, slightly larger, moderate, long period swell (330-340 degrees) will fill in Friday. This swell will peak well above advisory levels Friday night along north and west facing shores into Saturday before slowly fading through the rest of the weekend.
Background, medium to long period south to southwest swells will continue to filter into the area through the week, keeping surf along south facing shores from going flat. Rough, choppy surf along east facing shores will continue through the forecast period and may see a slight increase during the second half of the week into the weekend.
While winds will remain at recent magnitudes, higher afternoon humidity with occasional showers will help in maintaining low critical fire weather thresholds. Trades are expected to strengthen later this week but with continued elevated humidity. Temperature inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range between 7,000 to 8,000 feet today.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.