Jared Cannonier and Calvin Kattar stand at the gates this Saturday.
The veteran contenders face tough tasks at UFC Vegas 102, with Cannonier -- No. 10 at middleweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings -- taking on Gregory Rodrigues in the main event and Kattar -- No. 13 at featherweight -- looking to fend off Youssef Zalal in the co-main event. Top 15 stalwart vs. streaking contender is the order of the day and it's anyone's guess if torches are passed by the end of fight night.
Cannonier is less than three years removed from challenging for a UFC title, so his peak was higher than Kattar's. That also means his fall could be even more precipitous. "Tha Killa Gorilla" has lost consecutive fights for just the second time in his career and if he falls short against Rodrigues, it will mark the first time he's lost three in a row. Turning 41 next month, it's difficult to imagine Cannonier bouncing back from that slump.
The same could be said of Kattar, 37 in March. Kattar is on a career-worst three-fight losing streak and looks to be the perfect stepping stone for Zalal, 3-0 since returning to the UFC last year. The time is now for Zalal to show he's in his prime and read to cast Kattar aside, but Kattar has played the spoiler before and could be a step too high for "The Moroccan Devil."
Are Rodrigues and Zalal poised to inject some fresh blood into the rankings?
When: Saturday, Feb. 15. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
When I watch this version of Jared Cannonier fight, I still see a lot of the same fighter who scraped and clawed his way to a UFC title shot. True, he's lost a step, and the chin isn't what it used to be, but he's still able to go five rounds with the best of the best of the division. Does Gregory Rodrigues fit in that group?
A jiu-jitsu ace, Rodrigues has fallen in love with his hands and he'll be hunting for the knockout against Cannonier. "Robocop" showed a willingness mix the martial arts in his most recent fight against Christian Leroy Duncan, so perhaps he's turned the corner in that regard, because on paper that could make the difference between him being a reliable UFC APEX headliner and a true threat to challenge for the middleweight title.
I also can't ignore the age factor here. It's true that Rodrigues is no spring chicken given his long history with combat sports (and the fact that he looks closer to 52 than his listed age of 32), but Cannonier's mileage is showing. He's at that stage where, if you're a fan of his, you talk yourself into "oh, that was a bad stoppage, he could have come back if it wasn't for the ref" or "that decision didn't go his way because he made a few fixable mistakes." At some point one has to accept that a fighter has lost a step and in the UFC, that starts to add up in the loss column.
Cannonier has reached that stage in my eyes, so I'm going with Rodrigues by decision.
Pick: Rodrigues
If we take a closer look at Calvin Kattar's three-fight skid, it's not as bad as it looks.
A split nod against Josh Emmett that could have gone Kattar's way. An injury after the second round had barely started in his fight against Arnold Allen. And then he was outwrestled by Aljamain Sterling, no shame in that.
But remember what I said about coping with losses? Fighters get older, they get wear and tear, and suddenly the bad luck starts to show up more frequently than the good. That's the nature of the game. So if I'm holding Cannonier's well-tread tires against him (even though he and Kattar are far from an apples-to-apples comparison), then I have to take that into consideration with Kattar as well.
We also have to consider Kattar is a huge jump up in competition from what Youssef Zalal has previously faced. Zalal has looked great in his second stint with the UFC after he was thrown into the fire in his early 20s the first time around (and showed some great flashes of potential then, too). He's matured physically and mentally, and has shown an impressive all-around game with an eagerness to duel on the feet and a nose for the submission finish on the ground.
Kattar is the perfect test for Zalal right now and vise-a-versa. Regardless of who wins, we'll learn a lot about how much Kattar has left in the tank and how far Zalal has to go before being considered a legitimate contender at 145 pounds.
Give me Zalal, meaning I expect to see two shakeups in the rankings come Tuesday.
Pick: Zalal
I confess, I'm a little confused with the matchmaking here.
Edmen Shahbazyan struggles against wrestlers. Everyone knows this. When he has freedom to stand and strike, he can be incredibly compelling, but -- and stay with me here -- when he doesn't, he... isn't? So why do they keep matching him up with wrestlers? Who did he offend at UFC HQ?
I'm not saying Shahbazyan needs to be protected, but 185 isn't a division known for having a multitude of dominant grapplers, so it feels like someone is going out of their way to give him bad matchups. Even though Budka is 0-2 and hasn't exactly looked like prime Matt Hughes in the octagon, he does come from a wrestling background and you better believe he'll be shooting early and often.
There's a great chance Shahbazyan has improved his takedown defense, or at least shored it up enough to stay off his butt. If that's the case, he's smashing Budka on the feet. But we've done this dance before and until I see Shahbazyan stay upright for more than a round and a half, I can't pick him.
Pick: Budka
Ismael Bonfim's speed and aggression are what regularly make him a favorite in the upper mid-tier range of lightweights. He's as light as air on his feet, works smartly to cut off angles, and finds openings for counters even as he walks forward. He has all the makings of a 155-pound mainstay.
The matchmakers did well pitting him against Nazim Sadykhov, a hard-hitting southpaw with wrestling in his back pocket. I fully expect Sadykhov to mix in takedowns if the timing is right and if Bonfim's pressure proves to be too much early in the fight. He also has a stiff left hand ready to uncork should Bonfim linger in the pocket for too long.
Both these guys are fun to watch and could steal Fight of the Night from the co-main event if this goes the distance. I'll go out on a limb and pick an upset finish though, with Sadykhov putting Bonfim down with strikes in Round 2.
Ideally, this one is contested primarily on the mat and we get to see fun scrambles, tricky submission setups, daring escapes, and just some good ol' fashioned tusslin' for 15 minutes. On the flip-side, we could be blessed with the classic scenario of two grapplers canceling each other out and resorting to half-baked cardio kickboxing. A sick part of me wants to see the latter.
Vieira actually does get the occasional wild hair up his behind and tries to throw haymakers, while Petroski isn't totally lost on the feet and could out-strike Vieira with basic fundamentals. Seriously, if these to decide to go blow-for-blow, anything can happen, including possibly one of the ugliest fights of 2025 so far.
This is a fascinating clash of styles, with Jose Delgado more inclined to overwhelm his opponents with volume and combinations, and Connor Matthews likely to take a methodical approach and fall back on his wrestling. Delgado is a tall featherweight and you can bet he'll use every inch of those long legs to try and take Matthews' head off.
It's on Matthews to stay low and take Delgado down and wear him out in the early rounds. Easier said than done. When Delgado gets going, it is just a storm of punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Matthews' defense has to be on point because Delgado is looking to score from all angles. He's tough, but I can't see a scenario where he can withstand Delgado's striking for too long.
Matthews will have his moments with his wrestling, it just won't be enough to keep Delgado down for the whole fight. Delgado keeps this one on the feet for the majority of the contest and takes a decision.