It won't be Sandy 2.0, but the already-compromised New Jersey beaches are weathering another prolonged assault of onshore winds expected to peak Thursday, and the entire region may be in for heavy rains and a two-day gust-fest.
The National Weather Service has posted a coastal flood advisory for minor flooding in effect through 8 p.m. Thursday for both the oceanfront and back-bay areas, as winds from the east could gust to 45 mph and departing Hurricane Melissa stirs up waves.
"It's going to be a busy day," said Ray Martin, lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.
A general 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected throughout the region, with isolated amounts of 3 inches possible, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has areas from Philadelphia on south under a "marginal risk" of severe storms. The weather service says an "isolated tornado" is possible.
Gusts to 40 mph are possible inland, and up to 50 mph everywhere on Friday, Halloween, as the winds shift and howl from the northwest. Expect two days of major leaf-storms, just as many trees in the region are approaching peak color. Power outages also are possible both days.
The winds should die down some during the peak trick-or-treat hours, Martin said, "but hold on to those costumes and decorations."
The strongest winds and heaviest rains are likely to occur from noon to about 7 p.m., said Bob Larsen, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., although nailing timing often is an elusive exercise.
Giving an extra kick to the winds, Larsen said, is the likelihood they will be vertically "stacked"; that is, blowing from the same direction from the ground to the upper atmosphere.
But barring a downpour from a severe thunderstorm, no disruptive flooding is expected away from the Shore, as streams are low and rainfall has been well less than half of normal through the region the last 30 days.
The latest storm coincides with the 13th anniversary of the arrival of Hurricane Sandy at the Jersey Shore. That system went on to tear up beaches and result in record numbers of power outages in Peco's service territory.
This is not Sandy. It will have coastal impacts, but is not a coastal storm, Larsen said.
Its center is likely to track along the spine of the Appalachians, a track that in winter generates rain in Philly.
The Shore will likely experience minor flooding and perhaps significant erosion on beaches still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Erin in August and a potent nor'easter earlier this month.
Last week, Ocean City, which historically has one of the nation's most engineered beaches, declared an emergency in the hope that might free some money for a federal beach-fill project.
While the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is committed to restoring sand loss on the beach through 2041, no projects are scheduled the rest of this year. No money has been appropriated this fiscal year for shore protection anywhere in the country.
Ocean City spokesperson Doug Bergen said Wednesday the town has received "no news" since issuing the declaration.
The latest storm will track inland, continuing to aid and abet onshore winds. Minor amounts of moisture associated from the departing catastrophic Hurricane Melissa may become entrained in the storm, Martin said.
However Melissa's biggest contribution will be generating beach-erasing storm waves, even as winds turn around on Friday.
Winds could gust to 50 mph on Friday, Larsen said.
Winds are expected to peak during the day, but could continue gusting past 30 mph into the evening.
It also is expected to feel quite chilly, with temperatures in the mid-50s.
In short, it will feel very much like November, which awaits on Saturday.