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Scientists comment on Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica.
Dr Michael Byrne, Reader in Climate Science, University of St Andrews, said:
"Right now, we cannot say for certain whether the intensity of Hurricane Melissa has been boosted by climate change - that detailed analysis will take time. But what we know for sure is that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic - the main development region for hurricanes - are now considerably warmer than the long-term average. These warmer surface temperatures, driven by climate change, are fuelling more intense hurricanes with more rainfall. As climate continues to warm, the world urgently needs to prepare for more and more of this kind of devastating weather event."
Prof Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading, said:
"Climate change is having an impact on the strength of this storm. Hurricane Melissa is fuelled by warmer-than-usual ocean waters, bringing enormous volumes of rain. While the frequency of hurricanes may go down, we know these stronger storms will become more dominant and bring intense rainfall. Rising sea levels mean more coastal communities will be at risk from storm surges and must prepare for floods and landslides.
"Melissa has been a strange hurricane, hanging around in the Atlantic and getting stronger in bursts. These rapid intensifications will also become more common with climate change. This is not a hypothetical scenario to be imagined. This is a real and deadly storm.
"This is one of those worst-case scenarios that you prepare for but desperately hope never happens. The whole country will have a deep and permanent scar from this beast of a storm. It will be a long and exhausting recovery for those affected."
Prof Chris Holloway, Professor in Convection, University of Reading, said:
"The sea surface temperatures in the central Caribbean have been about 1-2 degrees Celsius warmer than average over the last month, so this is consistent with climate change contributing to the threats posed by Hurricane Melissa. Climate change likely increases the probability of very intense storms like this one because of warmer ocean temperatures, and there is increasing evidence that it leads to more rapid intensification on average as well, which was seen for this storm. Climate change also leads to more water vapour in the atmosphere, which increases the potential for severe rainfall in these storms. Lastly, sea levels are rising and will continue to rise with climate change, meaning that storm surge (coastal flooding) will be increasingly damaging for any given coastal location."
Prof Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said:
Why is Hurricane Melissa in particular so dangerous?
"The hurricane is unusually strong (Category 5 are rare), the slow movement means there is sustained wind speed and rainfall accumulation which increase the damage.
Is Jamaica particularly vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes?
"The Caribbean is a known area of hurricane activity. Vulnerability increases with lower income and wealth.
Why is Hurricane Melissa so powerful? Has climate change made it stronger?
"The Caribbean sea surface temperature is even higher than normal and we know that climate change has contributed to this. We also know that warmer oceans will sustain stronger storms so there is direct connection to climate change.
Will hurricanes on this scale become more common in the future?
"We expect the frequency of these strongest storms to increase until we can stop the warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
What kind of damage should emergency services be prepared to face in Jamaica as the hurricane makes landfall?
"Jamaica has had plenty of time and experience to prepare for this. Saving lives is the priority. I suspect when we see the total damage we will see the limits of preparedness that a country like Jamaica can afford.
Dr Leanne Archer, Research Associate in Climate Extremes, University of Bristol, said:
"There has been a perfect storm of conditions leading to the colossal strength of Hurricane Melissa: a warm ocean which has fueled its rapid intensification over the last few days, but it is also moving slowly, meaning more rain can fall whilst it moves across land. Most of these conditions have been supercharged by the extra heat in our oceans and atmosphere due to climate change. A warmer ocean means more energy; more strength; and more moisture in the warmer atmosphere means more rain can fall with a higher intensity.
"Jamaica experienced a devastating hurricane in 1903, but analysis of this event undertaken by climate scientists have shown that this same hurricane would have been more intense if it occurred now due to climate change. This suggests Hurricane Melissa could be the most devastating hurricane to ever hit Jamaica, which will have been amplified by our heating planet.
"Climate scientists are clear that a heating planet is likely to fuel hurricanes that lead to larger storm surges (due to higher sea levels); more intense rainfall; higher intensities and a larger number of events that become the most catastrophic (Category 4-5 events). Hurricane Melissa has all these aspects."
References:
1 https://climatelabbook.substack.com/p/a-damaging-hurricane-in-a-warmer
"Although hurricanes are usually typified by their wind speed (of which Melissa is the most extreme on the scale), there is also a significant hazard posed by the slow-moving but immense rainfall expected to impact both mountainous and low-lying areas of Jamaica. This means that the risk of flooding and landslides is high. Where heavy rainfall causes flooding in the low-lying areas, there is also a risk of this inland flooding coinciding with coastal flooding caused by the expected storm surge (>4m). This compounding may lead to an amplification of the depth and extent of flooding in low-lying areas. It is useful to remember that despite our focus on wind when it comes to hurricanes, the rainfall and resultant flooding can be more deadly."
Comments on climate impacts on small islands such as Jamaica:
"Hurricanes have the potential to significantly impact small islands such as Jamaica, as most of their populations and infrastructure are located along low-lying areas of the coast. This means the impacts of flooding from storm surge and extreme rainfall have a higher risk of impacting a large percentage of the population.
"Hurricane Melissa is yet another stark reminder that islands such as Jamaica face the brunt of accelerating extremes amplified by climate change, despite being among those who are the least responsible for the problem."