AFC championship game: Examining the X-factors and big picture for Bills and Chiefs

By Ryan O'Halloran

AFC championship game: Examining the X-factors and big picture for Bills and Chiefs

The Bills impressive season comes down to another matchup against the Chiefs. This time it is in Kansas City and for the AFC Championship. Mark Gaughan and Katherine Fitzgerald look at the matchups that might make a difference on Sunday and discuss how the Bills can finally find a way to get...

They meet again, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and coaches Sean McDermott and Andy Reid. For the ninth time since the start of 2020. The Chiefs are attempting to be the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowl titles and the Bills are seeking their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1993.

Buffalo Bills

THE BIG PICTURE

In a transition year of sorts, the Bills were still favored to win the AFC East. But to roll to a 13-4 regular season and their first conference title game since 2020? What a pleasant surprise this year has been for the Bills, who had regular-season winning streaks of three, seven and three games. Quarterback Josh Allen played at an MVP level, posting a 101.4 rating, 40 combined touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing), and opponents managed just 14 sacks. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir led the team with 76 regular-season catches.

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X-FACTOR

Aside from Allen, the Bills' key against Kansas City: They take the football away and don't give it up. Including the postseason, the Bills' plus-27 turnover differential is eighth-best in NFL history, and their eight turnovers are fewest including the playoffs. Through 19 games, the Bills have outscored their opponents 140-27 off turnovers, including 10-0 over Baltimore last week. In their Week 11 win over the Chiefs, the Bills were plus-1 - they scored a touchdown off a first-quarter takeaway. Compare this to last year when the Bills were plus-2 (tied for 12th) and had 28 giveaways.

2024 TURNING POINT

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A 3-0 start had turned into 3-2 after road losses to Baltimore and Houston when the Bills visited the New York Jets in Week 6. Lose, and the Bills would have their first crisis of the season. Win, and the Bills would take a step toward controlling the division. The game was tied at 20-20 entering the fourth quarter, and Bills kicker Tyler Bass made a 22-yard field goal with 3:43 remaining. The Bills sealed the win on nickelback Taron Johnson's interception with 1:52 remaining. It would start a seven-game win streak.

Kansas City Chiefs

THE BIG PICTURE

History. Period. No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowl titles, and the Chiefs stormed out to a 9-0 start before losing at Buffalo in Week 11. The Chiefs' starters are 16-1 this year; they sat out the Week 18 loss at Denver. The Chiefs' defense ranked fourth in fewest points allowed (19.2) during the regular season and was top 10 in fewest yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and in the red zone. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 26 touchdowns and tight end Travis Kelce caught 97 passes for 823 yards and three touchdowns.

X-FACTOR

Chris Jones is one of the league's most versatile players, able to line up (and win) at tackle on early downs and then kick outside to end (and win) on third down. Jones has 37 tackles and five sacks this year and was named first-team All-Pro for the third consecutive season. Jones absorbs extra attention to free up the rest of the Chiefs' pass rushers. Kansas City had 39 sacks this year. In eight career games against the Bills, Jones has 16 tackles and only one sack.

2024 TURNING POINT

If there was a turning point during a 15-2 season - no real bumps in the road, frankly - a Week 4 win at the Los Angeles Chargers (17-10) showed Kansas City was still in charge of the AFC West. The Chiefs fell behind 10-0 late in the first quarter but got a 54-yard touchdown catch by rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, a 37-yard Harrison Butker field goal and, with 6:04 remaining, a 2-yard touchdown run by running back Samaje Perine.

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