Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm with winds of 185 mph, is expected to bring "catastrophic winds, flash flooding, and storm surge" to Jamaica today. It's forecast to be the strongest storm to hit the island since recordkeeping began, over 170 years ago.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the "extremely dangerous" Hurricane Melissa is about to make landfall in Jamaica.
Meteorologists issued a dire warning for those in Jamaica on Tuesday morning, saying that it was the "last chance to protect your life" and that it is "an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation." The NHC advised people in Jamaica to "remain sheltered" as flash flooding, landslides and powerful, destructive winds were expected to barrel through the island nation on Tuesday, "causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center."
The Jamaican government issued mandatory evacuation orders on Sunday evening for several vulnerable coastal communities. The NHC advises people there not to "venture out of your safe shelter."
Where is Hurricane Melissa now, and what is its path?
As of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday:
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to "make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday," the NHC said.
Watches and warnings in effect
According to the NHC, these are the watches and warnings in place:
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
A hurricane warning means "that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion," the hurricane center said.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, according to the NHC.
What are the storm's expected effects and timing?
Wind: "Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa," meteorologists said. "Total structural failure is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger."
The forecast continued, "Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday."
The NHC added, "Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday."
Rain: Melissa is expected to dump 15 inches to 30 inches of rain on portions of Jamaica, with additional rainfall of 6-8 inches in eastern Cuba and 10-20 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday. Up to 40 inches of rain is possible, the NHC said. "Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely."
Storm surge: "A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today," the NHC said. "Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall."
And there is potential for a "significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall."
How is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through the end of November, has been relatively mild. There have been 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, four of which developed into major hurricanes. All of those hurricanes have followed similar tracks that have taken them away from the U.S. mainland. At this point in the 2024 season, the U.S. had already been hit by two severe storms, Helene and Milton, which devastated swaths of the Southeast.