The Nittany Lions (12-2) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU posted an 86%-win expectancy. All of their other 10 regular season wins carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, as PSU exhibited a thorough mastery of their B10 schedule. Penn State was unable to corral Oregon's potent offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards in the process of dropping a 45-37 decision to the Ducks. OC Andy Kotelnicki's offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though, with PSU checking in at a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 59th in explosiveness. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with their lockdown defensive backfield allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th in FBS). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft Edge Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 9th overall with a 42.3% pressure rate and 25th in sacks per dropback (7.8%).
Boise State (12-1) and superstar RB Ashton Jeanty have taken the nation by storm, winning every game on their schedule except for a hotly contested 37-34 loss to undefeated #1 ranked Oregon. Boise dominated every other team they faced by recording a 92%+ win expectancy or more in every contest except one - their first game against @UNLV (39%). BSU then proceeded to soundly defeat UNLY 21-7 with a 99%-win expectancy in the MWC Championship to emphatically stake their claim to a CFP Playoff berth and first round Bye. Fueled by RB Ashton Jeanty's Heisman Trophy runner-up campaign, BSU ranks 12th in SP+ offense, 3rd in EPA/play and 10th in marginal explosiveness. However, defensively they check in as the 46th overall unit and have had trouble corralling opposing offenses, ranking 118th in yards per successful rush allowed and 126th in marginal explosiveness.
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· Date: Saturday, December 31st, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: State Farm Stadium
· City: Glendale, AZ
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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*odds courtesy of BetMGM
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
"Boise State has scored 20+ points in every game this season with the exception of a 17-13 land war against Wyoming. Penn State has allowed 20+ points five times this season to teams such as Oregon, Minnesota, Ohio State, USC and Bowling Green. I think Boise State can generate enough offense to clear their 19.5 points team total line."
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