Tropical Storm Melissa continued its slow slog across the Caribbean Sea on the morning of Oct. 25, and forecasters said the storm is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 24 hours, potentially powering up to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with winds over 150 mph.
Melissa, with maximum winds of 70 mph and stronger gusts, should attain hurricane status later Oct. 25 and become a major hurricane by Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.
According to Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza, "a damaging, severe hurricane with wide-ranging impacts in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is likely."
The hurricane center warned that "life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected in portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through the weekend."
A hurricane warning is in effect for all of Jamaica.
The storm is not predicted to have any significant impact on the United States, forecasters said Oct. 24. However, rough surf, beach erosion, and some stormy conditions are expected along parts of the East Coast next week due to Melissa, as well as a coastal storm that is expected to develop, AccuWeather said.
According to Lanza, "there is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the exact track of Melissa due to its present disorganization, but in general a track around Jamaica and into eastern Cuba will be likely." After that, a probable path is north into the Bahamas and then out to sea next week.
The storm is expected to slowly turn north on Monday and "a large majority of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours," the hurricane center said Oct. 25.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
According to the hurricane center, some of the worst impacts will be in Jamaica: "Due to Melissa's slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica," the hurricane center said.
"Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica on Saturday Oct. 25 or Sunday Oct. 26."
Through Tuesday, Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25 inches in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Forecasters are concerned "that the island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds before the core - and strongest winds - even reach the coast," the center said.
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.
Contributing: Julia Gomez and Gabe Hauari.