After falling out of the AP poll, Illinois (17-8, 9-6 Big Ten) has rattled off back-to-back wins and built some momentum heading into its toughest six-game stretch of the season.
The Illini begin that slate â€" which includes five top-20 teams â€" on Saturday with a matchup against No. 11 Michigan State (19-5, 10-3 Big Ten). The Spartans have fallen in three of their past four contests, including a loss at home against Indiana on Tuesday.
With Illinois seeking revenge for last month’s loss in East Lansing and Michigan State aiming to get back on track, tensions figure to be sky-high â€" as they often are in this matchup.
Here are three big questions that will determine who walks out of the State Farm Center with the win:
When these squads met in January, the Spartans entered the contest averaging 19.1 fastbreak points per game â€" a figure that ranked first in the country. In that matchup, the Illini held their opponent to just eight points in transition, bottling up Jeremy Fears Jr. in the open court and preventing the dynamic guard from create for his teammates.
While Michigan State’s transition average has dwindled a bit, to 17.4 per game, it still ranks second in college basketball in the category. Faced with the alternative of scoring on Illinois' stingy half-court defense, the Spartans will need to create and capitalize on as many transition opportunities as possible.
In Jakucionis’ nine minutes against Michigan State last month, the Illini had a plus-seven point differential, and they were clearly a different offensive team with their lead guard on the court. Due to foul trouble, though, Jakucionis' presence was hardly felt (only nine minutes on the floor).
This time around, assuming Jakucionis can stay on the court, the Spartans will need to find a way to slow down the freshman phenom. When Jakucionis gets going downhill, he can dice up any defense as a facilitator or finisher. Although Michigan State doesn’t have an ideal natural defensive matchup for Jakucionis, expect defensive-minded Spartans coach Tom Izzo to have a scheme-based trick or two up his sleeve.
You can’t break down a matchup between Illinois and Michigan State without covering the battle of the boards. Two of the top three rebounding squads in the nation (by margin), they play with effort and grit â€" all of which is evident when they hit the glass.
Back in the teams' first go-round this season, the rebounding action amounted to a physical dogfight, which the Illini won 41-40. Still, the Spartans prevailed where it mattered â€" by a final score of 80-78. Shooting from the three-point line and free-throw line proved to be the difference for MSU, but if one team is able to separate itself from the other on the boards, it will have a great chance to do the same on the scoreboard.